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Phased 1.2 GW campus on the Atlantic coast.
Supply as reported: Grid, solar and wind PPAs, seawater cooling
A photoreal aerial of this facility as specified: halls, towers, substation and supply, placed in the landscape SAM measured.
Pulls a satellite view of the site and asks Segment Anything 3.1 for buildings, surface water, solar arrays and open land. The masks become hectares and distances, which replace the country priors for land and water in every estimate of this site, labelled as measured.
Sines campus does not clear the floors as proposed, but the alternative "Renewables + SMR" does. Proceed only if the supply mix is changed before permitting; the build plan below is that alternative.
| Metric | This mix | Baseline |
|---|---|---|
| Build cost | $41.4B | $41.4B |
| Months to live | 49 | 49 |
| Blended power | $0.040/kWh | $0.040/kWh |
| Utilization | 59% | 59% |
| EBITDA / yr | $10.4B | $10.4B |
| Payback | 4.0 yrs | 4.0 yrs |
| IRR | 8.5% | 8.5% |
| CO₂ / yr | 483,074 t | 483,074 t |
| Carbon intensity | 61 g/kWh | 61 g/kWh |
| Water / yr | 10,167,837 m³ | 10,167,837 m³ |
| Grid draw vs headroom | 99% | 99% |
| Land | 1,152 ha | 1,152 ha |
| Permanent jobs | 880 | 880 |
| Nuisance index | 48 | 48 |
| Industrial power | $0.085/kWh |
| Grid carbon | 140 g/kWh |
| Interconnect lead | 18 months |
| Grid headroom | 400 MW |
| Grid reliability | 97% |
| Construction trades | 4,000 @ $26/h |
| Land index | 0.80× |
| Sentiment | 64 / 100 |
| Climate · water | temperate · medium stress |
| Solar · wind | 0.90 · 0.80 |
| Geothermal · flare gas | no · no |
| People within 5 km | unknown |
| Name | Mix | Score | Payback | Verdict | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline as reportedbaseline | 35% grid · 35% solar · 30% wind | 59 | 4.0 yrs | Conditional |
| Supply mix | 50% small · 30% solar · 20% wind |
| IT load | 960 MW |
| Hardware | B200 · 80 kW racks |
| Crew · automation | 2,500 · 20% |
| Plan scores | 68 · E 59 · Env 72 · C 75 |
| Live in · payback | 49 mo · 4.1 yrs |
| Clears the floors | yes |
| Mix | Viable | Score | Payback | IRR | CO₂ kt/yr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Renewables + SMR 50% small · 30% solar · 20% wind | yes | 68 | 4.1 yrs | 8% | 119 |
| Gas + solar 50% on-site · 50% solar | yes | 63 | 3.8 yrs | 10% | 1,770 |
| Hydro PPA + grid 60% hydro · 40% grid | no | 65 | 3.4 yrs | 13% | 563 |
| Grid only 100% grid | no | 64 | 3.3 yrs | 14% | 1,180 |
| SMR long-term 70% small · 30% grid | no | 63 | 3.7 yrs | 11% | 413 |
| Grid + wind 60% grid · 40% wind | no | 61 | 3.7 yrs | 11% | 719 |
| Grid + solar 60% grid · 40% solar | no | 60 | 3.7 yrs | 10% | 759 |
| As proposed (35% grid · 35% solar · 30% wind) 35% grid · 35% solar · 30% wind | no | 59 | 4.0 yrs | 9% | 483 |
| Solar + wind + grid backup 40% solar · 30% grid · 30% wind | no | 59 | 4.1 yrs | 8% | 435 |
| Gas bridge 70% on-site · 30% grid | no | 58 | 3.3 yrs | 14% | 2,815 |